Within Sao Tome Deceptions
Did Sao Tome Ever Have an Oil Fortune?
Plausible offshore prospects were repeatedly presented as near-certain wealth before commercially recoverable oil had been proven.
On this page
- From geological possibility to public certainty
- Contracts, corruption claims and political competition
- Why exploration never guaranteed national wealth
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Introduction
Did São Tomé ever have an oil fortune? The short answer is no. What the country had was a powerful promise of future wealth. From the late 1990s onward, geologists identified offshore areas that might contain significant petroleum reserves. As international oil companies, investors and politicians focused on the Gulf of Guinea, many public discussions began to treat possible discoveries as though they were almost guaranteed riches. Yet commercially recoverable oil was never proven on the scale that had been anticipated.[scienceopen.com]scienceopen.comhosted documentHope & Oil: Expectations in São Tomé e Príncipeby G Weszkalnys · 2008 · Cited by 87 — Similarly, a relatively non-violent coup…
This matters because the expectation of oil wealth had political effects long before any oil was produced. Anticipated revenues shaped elections, government disputes, contract negotiations, corruption allegations and even interpretations of the country’s 2003 coup attempt. In São Tomé and Príncipe, one of the most influential “too-good-to-be-true” stories was not a fabricated treasure or forged artefact, but the belief that offshore oil would soon transform a poor island nation into a petroleum state.[scienceopen.com]scienceopen.comhosted documentHope & Oil: Expectations in São Tomé e Príncipeby G Weszkalnys · 2008 · Cited by 87 — Similarly, a relatively non-violent coup…
From geological possibility to public certainty
The origins of the oil story were not fraudulent. Offshore geological surveys suggested that waters around São Tomé and Príncipe might contain hydrocarbons similar to those found in neighbouring parts of the Gulf of Guinea. The country and Nigeria created a Joint Development Zone (JDZ) in 2001 to manage exploration in a disputed offshore area and share potential revenues.[NSTPJDA]nstpjda.orgNSTPJDA – Nigeria – São Tomé and Príncipe Joint…The agreement is expected to end the border dispute that has blocked deep water…
The problem was the growing gap between possibility and certainty. Exploration rights attracted enormous attention. In 2003, companies bid hundreds of millions of dollars for access to offshore blocks, creating headlines that implied vast wealth was just around the corner. Expectations rose faster than evidence. Signature bonuses paid for exploration rights were real money, but they were often interpreted by the public as proof that major oil discoveries had already been made.[The New Humanitarian]thenewhumanitarian.orgThe New HumanitarianOil companies bid over $500m for offshore exploration rightsOctober 28, 2003 — 28 Oct 2003 — US and Nigerian oil comp…
Anthropologist Gisa Weszkalnys later described São Tomé and Príncipe as a place living with “hope and oil” before an oil economy actually existed. Citizens, politicians and foreign investors debated how future petroleum wealth would be spent, distributed and protected even though commercial production remained hypothetical.[ScienceOpen]scienceopen.comhosted documentHope & Oil: Expectations in São Tomé e Príncipeby G Weszkalnys · 2008 · Cited by 87 — Similarly, a relatively non-violent coup…
This created a peculiar situation: an economy and political culture increasingly influenced by a resource that had not yet been found in commercially viable quantities. The expectation itself became a political force.[ScienceOpen]scienceopen.comhosted documentHope & Oil: Expectations in São Tomé e Príncipeby G Weszkalnys · 2008 · Cited by 87 — Similarly, a relatively non-violent coup…
Contracts, corruption claims and political competition
Once oil was treated as inevitable, control over future revenues became politically valuable. Disputes emerged over exploration agreements, licensing rounds and relationships with foreign companies.
Several early contracts became controversial. Critics argued that some agreements granted excessive advantages to outside interests or were negotiated without sufficient transparency. Political leaders disagreed publicly about the terms of certain deals, and some agreements were challenged or renegotiated after concerns that they were not in the country’s best interests.[African Studies Association]afsaap.org.auOpen source on afsaap.org.au.
The stakes increased as licensing rounds awarded offshore blocks. In 2005, São Tomé’s Attorney General reported “serious flaws” in the allocation of some exploration contracts. The investigation questioned whether certain companies possessed the technical expertise and financial capacity expected for deep-water exploration. The findings reinforced public suspicion that political connections sometimes mattered more than industry competence.[The New Humanitarian]thenewhumanitarian.orgThe New Humanitarian Attorney General finds 'serious flaws' in the award of oilThe New Humanitarian Attorney General finds 'serious flaws' in the award of oil
The prospect of future oil wealth also became entangled with broader concerns about corruption. Opponents accused governments of positioning allies to benefit from anticipated petroleum revenues. Even before production existed, debates over who would control future wealth intensified competition between political factions.[The New Humanitarian]thenewhumanitarian.orgThe New Humanitarian Attorney General finds 'serious flaws' in the award of oilThe New Humanitarian Attorney General finds 'serious flaws' in the award of oil
International organisations recognised these risks early. Rather than waiting for oil production to begin, São Tomé and Príncipe adopted an Oil Revenue Management Law designed to promote transparency and limit misuse of future revenues. The legislation was widely praised because it attempted to create safeguards before the money arrived, reflecting awareness that expectations alone could destabilise politics.[IMF eLibrary]elibrary.imf.orgOpen source on imf.org.
Oil and the 2003 coup atmosphere
The country’s brief 2003 coup occurred before any major discovery, but oil formed part of the political background. Contemporary observers and later analysts noted that anticipated petroleum wealth heightened both domestic political tensions and international interest in the islands. Coup leaders cited corruption and inequality among their grievances, while negotiations restoring civilian rule included commitments concerning transparent management of future oil revenues.[ISS Africa]issafrica.orgISS AfricaCoup d'etat in Sao Tome and Principe: Domestic causes…2 Nov 2003 — This article draws attention to the political development…
It would be misleading to claim that oil caused the coup. The event had multiple domestic causes, including military grievances and constitutional disputes. However, expectations surrounding petroleum wealth clearly influenced how political actors understood the country’s future and what was at stake in controlling the state.[ISS Africa]issafrica.orgISS AfricaCoup d'etat in Sao Tome and Principe: Domestic causes…2 Nov 2003 — This article draws attention to the political development…
Why exploration never guaranteed national wealth
The central misconception was the assumption that promising geology automatically meant national prosperity.
Oil exploration is highly uncertain. A company may spend millions of dollars investigating a region and still fail to find commercially recoverable reserves. Even when hydrocarbons are discovered, the quantities may be too small, too deep, too technically difficult or too expensive to develop profitably.[Open Knowledge Repository]openknowledge.worldbank.orgOf the major oil companies: ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Total have each taken turns in Block 1 of the JDZ but haven't succeeded…
That is largely what happened in São Tomé and Príncipe. Exploration produced indications of hydrocarbons and some discoveries, but follow-up drilling failed to confirm the kind of giant fields that early enthusiasts had imagined. Major international companies entered and later exited key blocks after results proved disappointing. ExxonMobil, Chevron and Total all participated in exploration efforts without establishing the transformational petroleum industry many had expected.[Open Knowledge Repository]openknowledge.worldbank.orgOf the major oil companies: ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Total have each taken turns in Block 1 of the JDZ but haven't succeeded…
The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative continues to describe the country’s petroleum sector as nascent and notes that no significant oil discoveries have yet been made. More than two decades after the first wave of optimism, São Tomé and Príncipe remains an exploration frontier rather than an oil-producing state.[eiti.org]eiti.orgSão Tomé and Príncipe São Tomé and Príncipe has a nascent petroleum sector. The country is conducting oil exploration activities in two zEITISão Tomé and PríncipeSão Tomé and Príncipe has a nascent petroleum sector. The country is conducting oil exploration activities in tw…
The contrast between expectation and reality is striking. Early discussions often focused on how future billions would be distributed. The harder question—whether those billions would ever exist—received less attention.[ScienceOpen]scienceopen.comhosted documentHope & Oil: Expectations in São Tomé e Príncipeby G Weszkalnys · 2008 · Cited by 87 — Similarly, a relatively non-violent coup…
What the oil promise reveals
The oil story occupies an unusual place in São Tomé and Príncipe’s history of contested claims. It was not a classic hoax involving forged evidence or invented events. Geological prospects were genuine, and exploration companies did not simply fabricate the possibility of oil. Yet public narratives frequently moved beyond what the evidence justified.
The episode shows how anticipation can become a kind of political illusion. Once enough people accept a future outcome as inevitable, decisions begin to be made as though it has already happened. Governments plan around expected revenues. Political rivals compete for control of wealth that does not yet exist. Citizens imagine dramatic improvements in living standards. Investors and intermediaries position themselves for opportunities that may never materialise.[scienceopen.com]scienceopen.comhosted documentHope & Oil: Expectations in São Tomé e Príncipeby G Weszkalnys · 2008 · Cited by 87 — Similarly, a relatively non-violent coup…
For São Tomé and Príncipe, the lesson was not that offshore oil was impossible. Rather, it was that possibility should never be confused with certainty. The country’s most consequential petroleum myth was the assumption that exploration alone guaranteed an oil fortune. More than twenty years later, that fortune remains largely a promise rather than a reality.[eiti.org]eiti.orgSão Tomé and Príncipe São Tomé and Príncipe has a nascent petroleum sector. The country is conducting oil exploration activities in two zEITISão Tomé and PríncipeSão Tomé and Príncipe has a nascent petroleum sector. The country is conducting oil exploration activities in tw…
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Endnotes
1.
Source: scienceopen.com
Title: hosted document
Link:https://www.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.1080%2F03056240802411156
Source snippet
Hope & Oil: Expectations in São Tomé e Príncipeby G Weszkalnys · 2008 · Cited by 87 — Similarly, a relatively non-violent coup...
2.
Source: eiti.org
Link:https://eiti.org/countries/[sao-tome-and-principe
Source snippet
São Tomé and PríncipeSão Tomé and Príncipe has a nascent petroleum sector. The country is conducting oil exploration activities in tw...
3.
Source: nstpjda.org
Link:https://nstpjda.org/
Source snippet
NSTPJDA – Nigeria – São Tomé and Príncipe Joint...The agreement is expected to end the border dispute that has blocked deep water...
4.
Source: elibrary.imf.org
Link:https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2006/183/article-A001-en.xml
5.
Source: capmad.com
Title: sao tome and principe targets offshore oil contracts by end 2026
Link:https://capmad.com/post/sao-tome-and-principe-targets-offshore-oil-contracts-by-end-2026
6.
Source: openknowledge.worldbank.org
Link:https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/4ff961a6-179e-51d7-b674-f1a02b22b120/download
Source snippet
Of the major oil companies: ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Total have each taken turns in Block 1 of the JDZ but haven't succeeded...
7.
Source: issafrica.org
Link:https://issafrica.org/research/papers/coup-detat-in-sao-tome-and-principe-domestic-causes-the-role-of-oil-and-former-buffalo-battalion-soldiers
Source snippet
ISS AfricaCoup d'etat in Sao Tome and Principe: Domestic causes...2 Nov 2003 — This article draws attention to the political development...
8.
Source: thenewhumanitarian.org
Link:https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/report/46944/nigeria-sao-tome-and-principe-oil-companies-bid-over-500m-offshore-exploration-rights
Source snippet
The New HumanitarianOil companies bid over $500m for offshore exploration rightsOctober 28, 2003 — 28 Oct 2003 — US and Nigerian oil comp...
Published: October 28, 2003
9.
Source: afsaap.org.au
Link:https://afsaap.org.au/assets/seibert.pdf
10.
Source: thenewhumanitarian.org
Title: The New Humanitarian Attorney General finds ‘serious flaws’ in the award of oil
Link:https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news/2005/12/15/attorney-general-finds-%E2%80%98serious-flaws%E2%80%99-award-oil-exploration-contracts
11.
Source: documents1.worldbank.org
Link:https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/831531562907780509/txt/Country-Economic-Memorandum-Background-Note-4-Update-on-oil-and-gas-exploration-and-production-in-S%C3%A3o-Tom%C3%A9-and-Pr%C3%ADncipe.txt
Additional References
12.
Source: youtube.com
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hm8QSPK01I
Source snippet
Equatorial Guinea: How a Country Became the Richest in Africa, But Its People Got Poorer...
13.
Source: youtube.com
Title: Jaca-1: São Tomé & Príncipe’s long awaited well
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEYQ4blNZZk
Source snippet
WHAT Secrets Lie in the Gulf of Guinea? Bioko, Príncipe, Sao Tome Island...
14.
Source: jstor.org
Link:https://www.jstor.org/stable/20406534
Source snippet
Hope & Oil: Expectations in Sdo Tome e Principe 473by G Weszkalnys · 2008 · Cited by 87 — For the ethnographer, people's anxious que...
15.
Source: resourcegovernance.org
Link:https://resourcegovernance.org/sites/default/files/STP%20Oil%20Revenue%20Law.pdf
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Source: wrm.org.uy
Link:https://www.wrm.org.uy/print/pdf/node/13139
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Source: erhc.com
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Source: cavendish.ac.ug
Link:https://www.cavendish.ac.ug/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/LEGAL-APPRAISAL-OF-THE-NIGERIA-AND-SAO-TOME-AND-PRINCIPE-JOINT-DEVELOPMENT-ZONE-AGREEMENT.pdf
19.
Source: youtube.com
Title: Global Journalist: Equatorial Guinea’s oil curse
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8gzX6-b_Ho
Source snippet
Jaca-1: São Tomé & Príncipe's long awaited well...
20.
Source: thisdaylive.com
Title: nigeria sao tome reignite oil exploration drive on abandoned coastal acreage
Link:https://www.thisdaylive.com/2026/04/21/nigeria-sao-tome-reignite-oil-exploration-drive-on-abandoned-coastal-acreage/
21.
Source: ecofinagency.com
Title: 2006 56644 s o tome and principe eyes year end offshore oil contracts
Link:https://www.ecofinagency.com/news-industry/2006-56644-s-o-tome-and-principe-eyes-year-end-offshore-oil-contracts
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