How Rumours Spread During the La Soufriere Eruption

Introduction

The 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière was not a hoax. It was a real volcanic emergency that displaced tens of thousands of people and triggered one of the largest disaster responses in the history of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Yet alongside the genuine hazard came a second problem: rumours, recycled photographs, false forecasts and unofficial reports that spread rapidly through social media at a moment when accurate information could affect life-and-death decisions.[UWI Seismic Research Centre]uwiseismic.comUWI Seismic Research CentreLa Soufriѐre Eruption 2020-2021 Fact SheetThere were over 30 explosive eruptions with the last explosive erupt…

This episode is important within the country’s history of misinformation because it shows how confusion can arise even when scientists and emergency agencies are providing regular updates. During the eruption, misleading claims did not usually take the form of an organised fraud. Instead, they often emerged from uncertainty, fear, mistaken interpretations and the rapid sharing of dramatic content. The result was a vivid example of how information itself becomes part of emergency risk.[Lyell Collection]lyellcollection.orgLyell CollectionEvaluating the crisis communications campaign during…by L Mani · 2024 · Cited by 11 — In the aftermath of the 2021 eru…

The Information Vacuum During a Fast-Moving Crisis

Volcanic crises create ideal conditions for rumours. Scientific monitoring can identify warning signs, but no expert can predict every development with complete certainty. As La Soufrière moved from an effusive eruption in late 2020 to explosive activity in April 2021, public demand for information increased dramatically. At the same time, thousands of people faced evacuation decisions, ashfall, disruption to communications and uncertainty about what would happen next.[PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govResponding to eruptive transitions during the 2020–2021…by EP Joseph · 2022 · Cited by 55 — The 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière…

More than 16,000 people were evacuated from high-risk areas, while later assessments estimated that roughly 22,000 people were displaced during the crisis. Ash clouds, water shortages and repeated explosions created an atmosphere in which unofficial information often travelled faster than formal announcements.[uwiseismic.com]uwiseismic.comUWI Seismic Research CentreLa Soufriѐre Eruption 2020-2021 Fact SheetThere were over 30 explosive eruptions with the last explosive erupt…

Researchers studying the eruption later noted that social media became a central channel through which people sought explanations, reassurance and forecasts. This brought clear benefits, because scientific updates could reach the public directly, but it also allowed rumours and misunderstandings to circulate widely.[ResearchGate]researchgate.netA thematic analysis of user comments and iconographic reactions duringFacts, Faith and Facebook: Science communication during…This study analyses public response to hazard and risk information…

False Forecasts, Recycled Images and Unofficial Reports

One of the most common forms of misinformation involved dramatic images supposedly showing the eruption. Some photographs and videos shared online were genuine, but others were recycled from different volcanic events, different countries or earlier disasters. Scientists and communicators repeatedly had to identify and correct these misleading visuals. A later review of the crisis communication effort highlighted the use of specially marked “Fake News” graphics to counter false images that were circulating online.[ResearchGate]researchgate.netExamples of the University of the West Indies, Seismic…False images circulating claiming to be associated with the eruptio…

Unverified predictions also caused problems. Social media users sometimes claimed to know exactly when the volcano would explode, stop erupting or produce catastrophic outcomes. Such forecasts often appeared authoritative because they were presented confidently or attributed to unnamed experts. In reality, volcanic forecasting relies on probabilities and monitoring data rather than certainty. The gap between what scientists could honestly say and what anxious audiences wanted to hear created fertile ground for speculation.[PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govResponding to eruptive transitions during the 2020–2021…by EP Joseph · 2022 · Cited by 55 — The 2020–2021 eruption of La Soufrière…

Another recurring issue was the spread of unofficial reports that appeared to come from credible sources. During the early stages of the crisis, the National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO) publicly warned that some media outlets had published inaccurate and misleading information about volcanic developments. Officials stressed that these reports were false and urged the public to rely on authorised bulletins.[Facebook]facebook.comOpen source on facebook.com.

These incidents were not necessarily deliberate hoaxes in the traditional sense. Many originated through misunderstanding, reposting without verification or the tendency of dramatic claims to attract attention. Nevertheless, their practical effect could be similar to that of a deliberate deception: they distorted public understanding at a moment when reliable information mattered most.

Why People Believed the Rumours

The rumours surrounding La Soufrière spread because they matched the emotional conditions of the crisis.

Several factors made misleading claims persuasive:

• High uncertainty. People wanted immediate answers about future eruptions that science could not always provide with precision.
• Visual credibility. Dramatic photographs appeared convincing even when they came from unrelated events.
• Social trust. Information shared by friends, relatives or community members often seemed more believable than anonymous official statements.
• Information overload. Multiple updates, warnings and interpretations circulated simultaneously, making it difficult to distinguish verified reports from speculation.
• Fear and urgency. Evacuation orders, ashfall and concerns about property loss encouraged rapid sharing rather than careful checking.[researchgate.net]researchgate.netA thematic analysis of user comments and iconographic reactions duringFacts, Faith and Facebook: Science communication during…This study analyses public response to hazard and risk information…

The experience reflected a broader pattern seen during disasters worldwide: people rarely spread inaccurate information because they intend to deceive others. More often, they share material because they believe it may help family members, neighbours or friends prepare for danger.

How Emergency Agencies Tried to Restore Trust

A notable feature of the La Soufrière crisis was the effort made by scientists and emergency managers to confront misinformation directly rather than simply issuing technical reports.

The University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre (UWI-SRC) and NEMO maintained frequent public briefings, online updates and question-and-answer sessions. Researchers later documented how social media platforms, especially Facebook, became major tools for direct communication between volcanologists and the public. Citizens could ask questions, challenge rumours and receive explanations from the scientists monitoring the volcano.[ResearchGate]researchgate.netA thematic analysis of user comments and iconographic reactions duringFacts, Faith and Facebook: Science communication during…This study analyses public response to hazard and risk information…

Communication teams also developed specific strategies to address misinformation:

The approach was widely regarded as effective. Studies of the eruption’s communication strategy have highlighted the unusually close collaboration between scientists and emergency authorities and the importance of maintaining public trust before, during and after the eruption.[Lyell Collection]lyellcollection.orgLyell CollectionEvaluating the crisis communications campaign during…by L Mani · 2024 · Cited by 11 — In the aftermath of the 2021 eru…

What the Eruption Revealed About Modern Misinformation

The La Soufrière rumours occupy an unusual place in the history of deception in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Unlike a classic newspaper hoax, financial scam or fabricated legend, the misleading claims emerged during a genuine emergency. The danger was not that people would believe a fictional event, but that they would misunderstand a real one.

The eruption demonstrated that misinformation can become a secondary hazard during natural disasters. False reports may encourage unnecessary panic, delay evacuation decisions, undermine confidence in experts or distract attention from legitimate warnings. At the same time, the crisis showed that rapid, transparent communication can reduce the influence of rumours before they become entrenched.[lyellcollection.org]lyellcollection.orgLyell CollectionEvaluating the crisis communications campaign during…by L Mani · 2024 · Cited by 11 — In the aftermath of the 2021 eru…

For Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the lessons extend beyond volcanic activity. The eruption highlighted a challenge increasingly common across the Caribbean and the wider world: when information moves instantly through social media, emergency management involves not only responding to physical threats but also identifying, correcting and containing false claims before they shape public behaviour.[ResearchGate]researchgate.netA thematic analysis of user comments and iconographic reactions duringFacts, Faith and Facebook: Science communication during…This study analyses public response to hazard and risk information…

Amazon book picks

Further Reading

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The Premonition

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Endnotes

1. Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Link:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9287448/

2. Source: researchgate.net
Title: A thematic analysis of user comments and iconographic reactions during
Link:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/369427704_Facts_Faith_and_Facebook_Science_communication_during_the_2020-2021_La_Soufriere_St_Vincent_volcanic_eruption

3. Source: ifrc.org
Title: Vincent and The Grenadines (SVG).Read more
Link:https://www.ifrc.org/press-release/soufriere-volcanic-eruptions-ifrc-warns-immediate-and-long-term-humanitarian-needs

Published: April 2021

4. Source: researchgate.net
Link:https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Examples-of-the-University-of-the-West-Indies-Seismic-Research-Centre-UWI-SRC-crisis_fig2_371090493

5. Source: facebook.com
Link:https://www.facebook.com/nemosvg/posts/january-3-2021-la-soufriere-bulletin-6-january-3-2021-100-pm-urgent-the-national/3731471740230088/

6. Source: facebook.com
Title: the 2021 la soufriere volcanic eruption was the greatest natural disaster in st
Link:https://www.facebook.com/cgtnamerica/posts/the-2021-la-soufriere-volcanic-eruption-was-the-greatest-natural-disaster-in-st-/6097895860305635/

7. Source: facebook.com
Title: La Soufrière Volcano
Link:https://www.facebook.com/nemosvg/posts/our-partners-at-uwi-seismic-research-centre-have-released-the-final-scientific-r/344219254411309/

8. Source: facebook.com
Link:https://www.facebook.com/groups/792933745119254/posts/1341606966918593/

9. Source: uwiseismic.com
Link:https://uwiseismic.com/volcanoes/la-soufriere-eruption-2020-2021-hub/la-soufri%D1%90re-eruption-2020-2021-factsheet/

10. Source: lyellcollection.org
Link:https://www.lyellcollection.org/doi/full/10.1144/SP539

11. Source: uwiseismic.com
Link:https://uwiseismic.com/downloads/la-soufriere-eruption-resources/

12. Source: uwitv.global
Link:https://uwitv.global/news/uwi-news/uwi-seismic-research-centre-partners-on-creative-projects-to-mark-the-anniversary-of-2020-2021-la-soufriere-eruption/

13. Source: Wikipedia
Title: 2021 eruption of La Soufrière
Link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_eruption_of_La_Soufri%C3%A8re

14. Source: gov.vc
Link:https://www.gov.vc/index.php/media-center/3617-nemo-urges-calm-no-eruption-at-la-soufriere-volcano

Additional References

15. Source: theguardian.com
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/12/st-vincent-la-soufriere-volcano-ash-gas-biggest-explosion

16. Source: youtube.com
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8NQtdVNdlw

17. Source: reliefweb.int
Link:https://reliefweb.int/report/saint-vincent-and-grenadines/saint-vincent-and-grenadines-and-surrounding-countries-final-report-la-soufriere-volcanic-eruption-emergency-appeal-ndeg-mdrvc005

18. Source: youtube.com
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-JY6uxpbIQ

19. Source: preventionweb.net
Title: displacement and gender st vincent following la soufriere volcanic eruption
Link:https://www.preventionweb.net/news/displacement-and-gender-st-vincent-following-la-soufriere-volcanic-eruption

20. Source: bb.usembassy.gov
Title: evacuation alert volcano red zone areas of st vincent
Link:https://bb.usembassy.gov/evacuation-alert-volcano-red-zone-areas-of-st-vincent/

21. Source: ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk
Link:https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/94020/1/robertson_et_al_2023_an_overview_of_the_eruption_of_la_soufri_re_volcano_st_vincent_2020_21.pdf

22. Source: youtube.com
Title: Vincy Voices
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3rhpXJq1tw

23. Source: stvincenttimes.com
Title: st vincent 4th anniversary la soufriere 2021 eruption
Link:https://www.stvincenttimes.com/st-vincent-4th-anniversary-la-soufriere-2021-eruption/

24. Source: reliefweb.int
Title: message st vincent eruption puts early warning test
Link:https://reliefweb.int/report/saint-vincent-and-grenadines/message-st-vincent-eruption-puts-early-warning-test